[Rockhounds] Number of contactable alien civilisations estimated at 36

[Axel Emmermann]

> How is this paper any different? 
[Axel] They had no idea of how many and what kind of planets there are out there in the sixties. We have far better insight in that field now. Also where the 'Goldilocks' zones are around stars and in galaxies is now far better understood. There is also a far better understanding emerging of how intelligence comes to be and what kinds of intelligence are possible. 
I'm not going to say that 36 IS the number of civilizations that are out there, that would be silly. What I do say is that this guess is FAR more educated than what Drake proposed.

>We have one example of an intelligent species, and we are it. One data point does not make a trend.
[Axel] That is a rather presumptuous statement! Even if your definition of intelligence only includes bipedal creatures with opposable thumbs, you might be surprised of what some apes can do with tools. There IS a reasons that apes are categorized as Hominidae. 
There are other types of intelligence that we are only just beginning to understand. Octopi, for example. They don't have just one centralized brain, like we do, but several "nodes" that allow them to think independently from the "sub-brains" that operate their limbs independently. They have stunning capabilities for problem solving and survival.
Homo Sapiens has chosen the path of technology... dolphins don't need that, but that doesn't mean they aren't intelligent!
We, as a species, may be smart and technologically advanced, but not smart enough to lay the power in the hands of the smartest instead of the richest... We may very well perish as a result of that. Oh well, 35 then...
 
> The loss of life associated with the US space program is very unfortunate but many new technology or major engineering programs are expected to cost lives.
[Axel] I'm concerned about that way of thinking... It's like the saying 'you can't make an omelet without breaking eggs'. I would find it alarming if people who adhere to that creed would climb to power. People are not eggs. NASA sent seven manned  Apollo missions to the moon. One of those survived miraculously... So, the odds of going to the moon safely are stacked in your favor for 85,7 %. See how many candidates you get.

>The people involved understand this and accept that possibility.
[Axel] That is part of the problem but discussions about nationalism and religion should not be held on this forum.

[Axel] Axel