[Rockhounds] Number of contactable alien civilisations estimated at 36

[J Bryan Kramer]

>
> If you really want to see hogwash then look at the Drake equation.
>
> How is this paper any different? We have one example of an intelligent
species, and we are it. One data point does not make a trend.
And who brought up moon or mars landings. I personally think then Lunar
base is a good idea, just to get us off this planet. Mars is a  "bridge too
far right now". We have already landed on the moon successfully. The loss
of life associated with the US space program is very unfortunate but many
new technology or major engineering programs are expected to cost lives.
The people involved understand this and accept that possibility.

BK

“When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by
one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.”
Edmund Burke

J Bryan Krämer       North Florida, USA
photos at: http://pbase.com/photoburner


On Tue, Jun 16, 2020 at 5:44 AM Axel Emmermann <axel.emmermann at telenet.be>
wrote:

> I strongly disagree, Bryan.
> Hogwash is wanting to put boots on the moon before 2024, or putting people
> on Mars any time soon. We may want to and we may try, but we don't have the
> technology yet. The first ones to brave the void will die... Inevitably!
> Something modest and simple like engineering a reusable spacecraft for
> hopping about in Earth's immediate vicinity resulted in at least 14 dead
> astronauts.
> If you really want to see hogwash then look at the Drake equation.
> If you really, really, REALLY want to see something of truly Olympic
> stupidity then take a look at the Kardashev scale.
> Nevertheless, famous scientists like Carl Sagan spoke highly about both.
>
> Cheers
> Axel
>
>
> -----Oorspronkelijk bericht-----
> Van: Rockhounds <rockhounds-bounces at rockhounds.drizzle.com> Namens J
> Bryan Kramer
> Verzonden: dinsdag 16 juni 2020 4:09
> Aan: Rockhounds at drizzle.com: A mailing list for rock and gem collectors <
> rockhounds at rockhounds.drizzle.com>
> Onderwerp: Re: [Rockhounds] Number of contactable alien civilisations
> estimated at 36
>
> What hogwash. Imagine a race of intelligent apes living on an island in
> the middle of a vast ocean with no other close islands. They are the only
> critters on the island which is covered with banana trees. One of them
> proceeds to calculate that there are 37 other intelligent critter species
> living on other unseen islands based on no data whatsoever.
>
> There you have it.
>
> BK
>
> “When bad men combine, the good must associate; else they will fall one by
> one, an unpitied sacrifice in a contemptible struggle.”
> Edmund Burke
>
> J Bryan Krämer       North Florida, USA
> photos at: http://pbase.com/photoburner
>
>
> On Mon, Jun 15, 2020 at 8:01 PM Paul <etchplain at att.net> wrote:
>
> > Scientists say most likely number of contactable
> >
> > alien civilisations is 36. New calculations come up
> >
> > with estimate for worlds capable of communicating
> >
> > with others. Nicola Davis, The Guardian, June 15, 2020
> >
> >
> > https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jun/15/scientists-say-most-li
> > kely-number-of-contactable-alien-civilisations-is-36
> >
> > The paper is:
> >
> > Tom Westby and Christopher J. Conselice, 2020,
> >
> > The Astrobiological Copernican Weak and Strong
> >
> > Limits for Intelligent Life. The Astrophysical Journal,
> >
> > Volume 896, Number 1
> >
> > https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.3847/1538-4357/ab8225
> >
> > Yours,
> >
> > Paul H.
> >
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